The finance minister says tax overhaul and wider reforms are shifting global perceptions of Nigeria, even as the IMF’s forecasts sit well below the government’s ambition.
Nigeria’s Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, used the close of the 2026 IMF-World Bank Meetings in Bangkok to make the case that the world is starting to see the country differently.
Speaking at the closing press briefing, Oyedele explained the thinking behind the “Nigeria Rising” narrative. He said it was designed to communicate the changes underway at home and to push back on perceptions that, in the government’s view, do not match its economic progress. He added that he had noticed growing interest in Nigeria among international stakeholders during the meetings, which he credited to the reform programme.
Tax overhaul at the centre
Oyedele pointed to the rewriting of Nigeria’s tax framework within two years as a cornerstone of the story, framing it as part of a wider effort to reform public administration and economic management. Taken together, he said, the reforms put Nigeria on course for sustainable growth and shared prosperity. He urged Nigerians to look past negative headlines, saying that “everywhere you look, there’s an opportunity” for those willing to search for it.
A 7% target against a 4% forecast
The minister said the government expects growth to run well ahead of IMF projections, which he described as historically conservative, and is working towards 7%. He said the plan relies on tackling structural constraints, bringing down inflation and improving the business environment.
The gap is wide. In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.1% and kept its 2027 projection at 4.3%. The Fund tied the outlook partly to improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade. It also warned that higher prices for essential goods could deepen poverty and food insecurity, and recommended targeted, temporary cash transfers to protect vulnerable households.
Inflation, interest rates and the cost of credit
Oyedele identified food, energy and logistics costs as the main sources of inflationary pressure and said the government is working on each. If inflation falls to low single digits, he argued, single-digit interest rates become achievable, easing access to credit for businesses and supporting investment.
He illustrated the cost of borrowing with an example. Prime lending rates are close to 30%, he noted, so some of the country’s strongest companies are growing at around that pace while the broader economy expands at roughly 4.5%. He said cheaper credit could unlock far more. He also said the naira’s recent performance has helped improve the inflation outlook.
Hitting 7% would require growth to accelerate sharply, backed by sustained gains in investment, productivity and business activity.
