Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.06% year-on-year in February 2026, reflecting a continued but slow easing in price pressures across the economy, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figure represents a slight drop from 15.10% recorded in January 2026, extending the country’s disinflation trend to about 11 consecutive months, although recent declines have been minimal.
Gradual Disinflation Trend Persists
Nigeria’s inflation has been on a downward trajectory since late 2025, when it stood at 15.15% in December, following a major rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The continued moderation suggests that earlier policy measures including tight monetary policy, exchange rate stabilization, and improved supply conditions are gradually taking effect. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has also signaled expectations that inflation will continue to decline in the coming months.
Food Prices Remain a Key Pressure Point
Despite the overall decline in headline inflation, food inflation rose significantly to 12.12% in February, up from 8.89% in January, highlighting persistent cost pressures in Nigeria’s food supply chain.
Food prices remain the largest contributor to inflation in Nigeria, meaning any increase in this category can offset gains made in other sectors. Analysts note that factors such as transportation costs, supply disruptions, and structural inefficiencies continue to influence food price movements.
Impact of CPI Methodology Changes
The NBS recently revised its inflation calculation methodology, adopting a 12-month reference period rather than a single-month base. This adjustment aims to better reflect actual consumption patterns and smooth out volatility in reported figures.
Outlook for the Economy
While the marginal decline in February suggests stability, the slow pace of disinflation indicates that inflationary pressures are not fully resolved.
The CBN has already begun cautiously easing monetary policy, with expectations that inflation could continue trending downward if exchange rate stability is maintained and food supply improves.
However, economists warn that sustained reductions will depend on structural reforms, particularly in agriculture, logistics, and energy are key drivers of production costs in Nigeria.
