Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose to 15.38% year-on-year in March 2026, marking the first increase after nearly a year of steady declines, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The March figure represents a 0.32 percentage point increase from 15.06% recorded in February 2026, signaling renewed pressure on consumer prices across the economy.
The uptick reverses an 11-month disinflation trend that had seen inflation fall significantly from highs recorded in 2024, highlighting emerging risks to Nigeria’s price stability outlook.
Food and fuel pressures drive increase
A key driver of the rise in inflation was food inflation, which climbed to 14.31% year-on-year, up from 12.12% in February.
The increase in food prices has been largely attributed to higher transportation and logistics costs, driven by rising domestic fuel prices. These fuel price pressures have been linked to global oil market disruptions, particularly ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
As transport costs rise, the effect is transmitted across supply chains, leading to higher prices for essential food items and other goods.
Economic implications
The resurgence in inflation presents a fresh challenge for policymakers, especially after months of progress in stabilizing prices. While inflation had moderated significantly from peaks of around 33% in late 2024 to near 15% in early 2026, recent developments suggest that external shocks and structural cost pressures remain key risks.
For households, the increase translates into higher living costs, particularly in urban centers where transportation and food expenses form a significant share of consumption.
